Prisoner's Dilemma: Our Love Story in a Nutshell (and a diagram)

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I am a huge fan of prisoner's dilemma. In fact, my wife married me because of it (not because it makes me a lot of money like it sounds like it should). To those who are unfamiliar, prisoner's dilemma is part of economic game theory that started with two economists at Princeton and which was further developed by John Nash (remember "A Beautiful Mind"?) and others. It shows why two individuals might not cooperate, even when doing so results in the best outcome for everyone. 

	Katy cooperates (breaks up with boyfriend)	Katy defects (stays with boyfriend)
Clint cooperates (breaks up with girlfriend	Happy marriage (10,10)	Clint loses (0,5)
Clint defects (stays with girlfriend)	Katy loses (5,0)	Average Marriage (4,4)

Note: The numbers represent the payouts for each player. For example, if I choose to cooperate and break up with my girlfriend and Katy stays with her boyfriend (top right box), I get 0 "units of happiness" and Katy gets 5.

My wife Katy and I were both dating other people right before we got engaged. I realized when I ran into her at BYU after our LDS missions that she was the "one", and that we both needed to break up with our significant others to marry each other. However, the usual outcome of prisoner's dilemma is that both players end up with a sub-optimal outcome because of their fear of the other player defecting (i.e. if I broke up with my girlfriend and Katy stayed with her boyfriend, I lose everything, including my old girlfriend, and end up with nothing). As nerdy and as unromantic it sounds, I drew this diagram on a piece of paper and explained it to her in the library. We are now happily married with a "10" payout for both of us.

That's our love story in a nutshell and a diagram.

P.S. This theory is used in lots of other serious things like oil cartels in the Middle East, but I think my marriage example is the most practical application yet. Can I get a Nobel, anyone?

Note: Merrill Flood and Melvin Drescher were the ones who came up with the actual prisoner's dilemma. John Nash's famous equilibrium would have resulted in an "Average Marriage (5,5) in the lower right-hand corner.

Christina Larsdotter (Simtuna, Vastmanland, Sweden, 1838-?)

February 21, 2011

"You will develop an ability to love that perhaps you did not anticipate as you search for your ancestors to whom you owe your existence in this world."

Two myths that I've now seen proven false; 1-Genealogy is for experts who have spent years researching and who have enough discretionary time to devote hours at a time to family history. 2-My family line is completed.

My Grandpa Larson is an avid genealogist-so is my Aunt Ula Burgess. They've been looking for my ancestors for decades. I thought, until this week, that my family history was completed, and that my only contribution to my family line would be to add a few stories and organize a few pictures. I set a goal two weeks ago to find one of my ancestors by the end of the semester that had never been found. I was asked to be one of the family history consultants for my BYU student ward (congregation) and I wanted to set an example and stir the water to get people going. It felt unrealistic, even as I stood in class and told everyone about my goal. It seemed like one of those feel-good dreams that end up in my journal next to "Learn to play the harmonica" and "finish an iron-man triathlon".

I started by aimlessly looking through New Family Search (new.familysearch.org), a program built by the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints to help people find their ancestors, and clicked on my 3rd-great-grandfather, Pehr Larson. I clicked "see parents and siblings" and noticed that his sister, Christina Larsdotter, didn't have a death date. All it said next to her name was, (1838-?). I figured that she died at birth, and maybe they just never completed a death certificate for her, but I started by going to ancestry.com and looking up the death records for Simtuna, Vastmanland, Sweden. Surprisingly, there was no Christina Larsdotter who died on June 28, 1838. Interesting...

When I told my grandpa earlier that I wanted to get involved in genealogy, I think he himself was a little skeptical about what I could really do. I don't blame him. If I'd been working as and architect for 40 years and someone came up to me with a sand shovel and pail and asked "How can I help?" I'd be a little skeptical as well. I called my grandpa and told him what had happened, and I could hear the surprise in his voice, "Really? Wow, that's great, Clint."

At that point I realize that I unleashed a monster-two of them, actually. He told his cousin, Susan Cundick (also an avid genealogist), about what had happened , and they both started hunting. Before I checked my email again the next day, I had a pile of emails in my my inbox, "Found Christina in a survey in 1841-1845. She lived at least until age 7",..."Found Christina in another survey which shows that she moved from her home in Simtuna in 1856 at age 18". By this time on a Saturday night I was out being a college kid and hanging out with friends, but the genealogy wasn't stopping for me. On Sunday I checked my email again and saw a message from Susan,

"Yea! After following her back to Simtuna, back to Thorstuna again and around and around here she is married! Then they move to Simonstorp which is in the county of Ostergotland in 1874."

And then the glorious Monday afternoon message,

"Found them in the survey 1876-1885 with 5 children. We should look up all the births and continue to follow them. I'm pretty sure that none of this family has had temple work done since when I worked on this these records weren't available. So we should finish the details and put them on [New Family Search]. It's great Clint wanted to follow up on Christina."

This is just a piece of the miracle that started this search, but I know now better than ever what Elder Henry B. Eyring said in May of 2005,

"You are not just gathering names. Those you never met in life will become friends you love. Your heart will be bound to theirs forever...

With opportunity there comes greater obligation to keep our trust with the Lord. Where much is given, much is required. After you find the first few generations, the road will become more difficult. The price will become greater. As you go back in time, the records become less complete. As others of your family search out ancestors, you will discover that the ancestor you find has already been offered the full blessings of the temple. Then you will have a difficult and important choice to make. You will be tempted to stop and leave the hard work of finding to others who are more expert or to another time in your life. But you will also feel a tug on your heart to go on in the work, hard as it will be...

...remember that the names which will be so difficult to find are of real people to whom you owe your existence in this world and whom you will meet again in the spirit world. When you were baptized, your ancestors looked down on you with hope. Perhaps after centuries, they rejoiced to see one of their descendants make a covenant to find them and to offer them freedom. In your reunion, you will see in their eyes either gratitude or terrible disappointment. Their hearts are bound to you. Their hope is in your hands. You will have more than your own strength as you choose to labor on to find them" (http://lds.org/pa/library/0,17905,7319-1,00.html)

I'm not a genealogist, but even now as a 22-year old college student I can do something to help, and the feelings of gratitude and love that I have for my ancestors and my family are stronger than they've ever been.

Important footnote: The references to the temple are an important part of Mormon theology. The LDS church emphasizes genealogy because we believe that, if people didn't have an opportunity to accept Jesus Christ in this life, they can accept it in the world of spirits after they die. However, because they are temporarily separated from their physical bodies and can't be baptized, we can perform vicarious ordinances for them in LDS temples (i.e. my sister can be baptized in behalf of Christina Larsdotter, and if she accepts the gospel in the spirit world that baptism is valid). For more on this see a talk given by one of the twelve apostles of the LDS church (http://lds.org/general-conference/2000/10/the-redemption-of-the-dead-and-the-testimony-of-jesus?lang=eng)

The Reason for Hope

January 28, 2011

"But sanctify the Lord God in your hearts: and be ready always to give an answer to every man that asketh you a reason of the hope that is in you with meekness and fear:"
(KJV 1 Peter 3:15)

Why am I happy, what makes me lighthearted, and what gives me peace? Ask me last year and I might have responded with an analogy: "Imagine that two kids are admitted to college. One goes because he hears college is a party, you don't have your parents breathing down your neck, and you're free. The other goes because he realizes that an education opens doors and improves your chances of getting a good job. Besides that, he has a passion for knowledge and knows it's a tool that can eventually help other people.

They both then face the trials of college life; high stress, expectations, and social challenges with the occasional Friday night alone at home and a D- on a final exam. Our first friend revels in the excitement of college life for awhile, but soon becomes disenchanted with the idea. The second, however, has a vision of why he came to college, has direction, and understands the meaning of the difficulties he faces.

Imagine two people are sent to earth. One finds joy in fleeting things, "spends money for that which is of no worth and [his] labor for that which cannot satisfy" (Book of Mormon, 2 Nephi 9:51). The other serves others, finds joy in things that don't have an end in this life-knowledge and family. He realizes that this life is temporary, a proving ground to show God that we will "stand as ^cwitnesses of God at all times and in all things, and in all places that ye may be in, even until death", and all trials and difficulties are put in perspective (Book of Mormon, Mosiah 18:9)

That was my answer last year...all true, but missing something.

This year I'm reading "The Sacred and the Profane" by Mircea Eliade. It's a history of religious ritual, and the author notes that "religious man" often returns to the cosmogony, or the original creation. Religions have myths surrounding the creation, celebrate the beginning of all things, and revel in creation even if it's as simple as building a house or cooking a meal. Eliade argues that religious man doesn't "commemorate" the creation, but attempts to to re-live it, because by participating in the earth's "birth" we ourselves become new creatures.

What is the "reason of the hope that is in me"? Christ will "was wounded for [my] transgressions, bruised for my iniquities". He will "bear [my] griefs, and carry [my] sorrows", if I choose to follow Him (Book of Mormon, Mosiah 14:4,5,11 http://lds.org/scriptures/bofm/mosiah/14?lang=eng). I've been baptized into the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints, which has the priesthood, the power of God on earth, and thanks to that I participate in a ritual each week called the sacrament, which symbolically "re-creates" the moment that Christ took my sins upon Him, bled and died for me.

The reason for my hope? According to Paul, I'm a "new creature" every time I choose to follow Christ. "...old things are passed away; behold, all things are become new" (KJV, 2 Corinthians 5:17). Contrary to what the world might believe, the gospel and the commandments of God are making me free (KJV John 8:32).

Imagine further that our physical bodies had no capacity to heal. Saturday's bruise from the soccer game is added to last night's headache and last month's slip on the ice. It would soon be unbearable. Now imagine it spiritually, our mistakes and sins forever compiling until the guilt and the pain would overcome us. With Christ our guilt is washed away and we are clean.

Eventually we will receive the ultimate renewal, the "re-creation" of our own lives and our own bodies after death, and we will live with Him forever. Something to think about every time we step outside and bright, morning sunrise replacing a dark, cold night...

(see also Book of Mormon, 2 Nephi 9 for more on Christ's role as our Savior http://lds.org/scriptures/bofm/2-ne/9?lang=eng)